Relative to their current stats, none of these claims are that far-fetched.

Smith's TD's have been going down, there's no denying that.  With our team having a decidedly run-first approach, its very likely that they will keep going down. With TD's being a very important category (especially in non-PPR leagues), that makes Smith a potential fantasy bust, especially with people taking him around the 2nd round.

Jarrett still could have a good season, despite a lackluster preseason.  So far he's been thrust into the #1 slot even though he's not a #1 reciever (and never will be).  When he goes back to his role as #3, he could see his stats go up as he may get more looks as JD seems to be looking at the whole field (as evidenced by him passing up on a wide-open Smith in the endzone against the Ravens).  He could end up with 40 rec's 500 yrds and a handful of TD's which would definitely qualify him for a breakout season compared to his previous stat lines.

Smitty will always find a way to get his, so you don't need to worry about that. But check out this article: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/12133171

Denver Broncos receiver Brandon Marshall...was targeted 174 times on pass plays last season. "One-hundred and seventy-four times," Smith said. "Can you believe that?" A buck seventy-four is a number now ingrained in Smith's head like your birthday or Social Security number is in yours. It's that way because Smith plays in a run-first offense for the Panthers, and it's a number that sounded way too high for any receiver. Here he is one of the game's most explosive receivers, and he spends a lot of his Sundays banging heads with corners in the run game, a speedy receiver blocking way too much. "So how many times were you targeted?" I asked Smith. "It wasn't close to that, I can tell you that," he said. "As a wide receiver, I never think we throw the ball enough," Smith said. "I understand completely why people say things about our offense. When you talk Carolina Panthers football, you talk defense and the running game. I just work here and do what I'm told."

That's just speculation based on playing time against the Ravens.

Ultimately, though, I wouldn't be suprised if he did surpass Jarrett since he's playing noticeably better.